HVAC businesses sold for an average of 2.79 times seller's discretionary earnings (SDE) in BizBuySell data through Q1 2026, and practitioner estimates put owner-run shops at 2.0x to 3.5x SDE. As of October 2026, the three things that decide most HVAC deals are who holds the contractor license, whether the technicians stay, and how much of the revenue is recurring service work rather than one-off installs. Private equity is buying HVAC shops as add-ons, which raises prices for larger shops and also gives you an exit market if you build one.
The 2.79x average is a multiple of SDE: profit before one owner's salary and benefits, interest, depreciation and amortization. It is an average across many deals. A specific shop can sit well above or below it.
The multiple climbs with size. Practitioner estimates for 2026 put HVAC and plumbing businesses at:
Note the switch from SDE to EBITDA. Above roughly $1 million of earnings, buyers treat the owner's salary as a cost and price on EBITDA, and multiples rise. Our article on SDE vs EBITDA shows the arithmetic.
Within a size band, these features usually push a shop toward the top of its range:
Ask early what the price includes. Parts inventory, vehicles and working capital are handled differently from listing to listing. Our article on what is included in the multiple covers the usual treatment.
Many states license HVAC contractors, often through a qualifying individual tied to the company. Rules vary by state and sometimes by city or county. Before you sign a letter of intent, check:
If you are using an SBA loan and do not hold the license yourself, read whether you need a trade license to buy with an SBA loan. Confirm the structure with your lender and your state licensing board before closing.
Leases matter less in HVAC than in retail, because customers do not come to the shop. Still confirm the shop and yard lease can be assigned to you or renewed, and that the term covers your plans.
PE firms are active in HVAC, mostly through add-ons. Of 25 HVAC deals PKF O'Connor Davies tracked in the first half of 2026, 14 were PE add-ons and 3 were new PE platforms. Carta data from September 2026 shows HVAC add-ons running roughly four times as common as platform deals, and PE home-services deal count rose 150% from 2020 to 2024.
This cuts two ways for you:
Illustrative numbers, using a simplified version of the lender's coverage test:
The deal pencils at the average multiple. Rerun it if the owner is the only licensed person and you must hire a qualifier and a general manager. A $150,000 manager in place of your $120,000 salary still leaves coverage near 1.73x. The bigger risk is revenue falling after the owner leaves. A 20% drop in SDE, to $480,000, leaves $360,000 after your salary and coverage near 1.38x. That still clears the test, with little room left.
Where these numbers come from: HVAC and all-sector SDE multiples are BizBuySell data for 2021 to Q1 2026 as summarized by Beancount. Size-band ranges are practitioner estimates from Beancount's HVAC and plumbing roll-up guide. Deal counts are from PKF O'Connor Davies' Summer 2026 HVAC M&A update and Carta. SBA rules are SOP 50 10 8.1, summarized by Beancount. The 10% rate is the SBA maximum variable rate for loans over $350,000 with prime at 7% in September 2026, per NerdWallet. Check current prime. SOP 50 10 8.1 applies to loans that receive an SBA loan number on or after October 1, 2026 (SBA Information Notice 5000-880695).
Yes, if a licensed person can qualify the company after closing and the lender accepts that structure. Many owners of larger shops do not work on equipment. You do need to understand pricing, dispatch and technician pay well enough to manage them.
The practitioner estimates above cover HVAC and plumbing together. The same logic applies: owner-run shops trade on SDE, larger companies on EBITDA. Licensing questions are similar but the boards and rules differ.
PE buys HVAC shops as add-ons today, per the PKF and Carta data. Whether they buy yours depends on size, margins, management and the market when you sell. Build the company so it is worth owning without a sale.
An HVAC shop is the classic first add-on in a home-services roll-up. Before you price one, read what the multiple difference is between an add-on and a platform, because that gap is where a holding company makes its money.
Meraki Dealmakers is a service of Meraki Partners, LLC, an advisory firm. It is not a broker-dealer, investment adviser, business broker, law firm or accounting firm. This article is general information, not legal, tax or investment advice.
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Meraki Dealmakers is a service of Meraki Partners, LLC.
Meraki Partners, LLC is an advisory firm. It is not a broker-dealer, investment adviser, business broker, law firm or accounting firm, and does not solicit investors or receive compensation based on capital raised.
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